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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
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Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5

Closed March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

27%YES
73%NO

Volume 24h

$53K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

50% / 58%

Spread

8.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Penguins vs. Islanders

Full event →
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5
52%
Penguins vs. Islanders
43%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
27%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
22%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
7%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-27.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

30%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -28.5pp

58% → 30%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

30% YES (-28.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 27%99%
Buy YES@ 27¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 73¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1492903

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.