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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
Share on X

Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5

Closed March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

41%YES
60%NO

Volume 24h

$64K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

38% / 45%

Spread

7.00pp

Expert Signal

41%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Penguins vs. Islanders

Full event →
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5
52%
Penguins vs. Islanders
43%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
27%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
22%
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
7%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-23.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -24.5pp

48% → 23%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

23% YES (-24.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 41%99%
Buy YES@ 41¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 60¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $64K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 7.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1492904

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.