Markets/Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Data as of Apr 5, 2026, 04:34 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence

7%FIS

7%Market

1 signal

Key Drivers

⊙

MacroBTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.9% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑

-0.3pp100%

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.4% ↓, ETH -0.9% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:39 AM

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$53K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

6% / 6%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1651389

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31: 40%, April 30: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~54%.