Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5

Market Price

46%YES

54%NO

Vol 24h$80K

Liquidity$14K

Bid / Ask45% / 47%

Spread2.00pp

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Price swing

51pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$80K

24h total

Liquidity

$14K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-49.9pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $80K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2121579