Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Closes April 2, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$538K
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
48% YES
Mar 26, 2026
Trough probability
10% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: -38.0pp
48% → 10%
Mar 26, 2026
Current
18% YES (+8.0pp recent)
Mar 26, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $538K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1711480
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
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