Markets/Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 12.5

Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 12.5

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 08:44 PM UTC

Closes March 26, 2026

Polymarket Price

45%YES

56%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

38% / 52%

Spread

14.00pp

Expert Signal

45%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.2pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+25.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

19% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: +25.0pp

26% → 51%

Mar 26, 2026

Peak probability

51% YES — highest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Current

44% YES (+3.5pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 45%99%

Buy YES@ 45¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 55¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 12.5" at 45% YES / 55% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 45%. The bid-ask spread is 14.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Precious Achiuwa: Points O/U 12.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 45%, NO 55%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1722810

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