Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$430

Liquidity

$66K

Bid / Ask

13% / 14%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +10.7pp

8% → 19%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

19% YES — highest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 87¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $430 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393324