Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

27%YES

74%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$69K

Bid / Ask

26% / 27%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +10.5pp

18% → 28%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

34% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

26% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 27%99%

Buy YES@ 27¢

Edge

+1.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 74¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393321