Markets/Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:38 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2028

Polymarket Price

22%YES

79%NO

Volume 24h

$205

Liquidity

$42K

Bid / Ask

20% / 21%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +12.5pp

14% → 27%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

30% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

19% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $205 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393322