Markets/Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?

Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?

Market Price

98%YES

2%NO

Vol 24h$94K

Liquidity$29K

Bid / Ask98% / 99%

Spread0.50pp

ClosesMay 15, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+4.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50pp. The market closes on May 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-27). "Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2069288