RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$0

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Volume traded

$10K

24h total

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 market is relevant due to its significant upward price momentum, indicated by a 50 percentage point increase, suggesting a rapidly shifting expectation regarding total goals scored in this match. This movement occurs amidst a cluster of related Elche CF markets, all currently showing 0% price momentum, which may imply that attention and speculative capital are concentrating on the higher total goals market for the Celta Vigo fixture.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets2 markets

2 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF end in a draw?

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF end in a draw

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RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2031211