ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Red Wings vs. Penguins
Share on X

Red Wings vs. Penguins

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$651K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Red Wings vs. Penguins" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $651K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Red Wings vs. Penguins." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1499921

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5: 100%, Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5: 92%, Red Wings vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5: 79%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-41.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -40.5pp

49% → 9%

Apr 1, 2026

Current

9% YES (-40.5pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢
Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this