Markets/Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Market Price

77%YES

23%NO

Vol 24h$171K

Liquidity$20K

Bid / Ask76% / 79%

Spread2.90pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The market's 77% YES price, reflecting a significant 16 percentage point decline from 93%, indicates a heightened probability of Ruben Rocha departing as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31st. This shift is driven by recent developments and the market's collective assessment of incoming information.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

-8.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $171K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 2.90pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2126997