Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$0
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
99%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
27% YES
Mar 6, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 9, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
72%
Mar 7, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
70%
Mar 12, 2026
Biggest move: +89.2pp
11% → 100%
Mar 12, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 17, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1437427
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.