Markets/Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes July 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES

45%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

54% / 56%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

59% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 55%99%

Buy YES@ 55¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 45¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/540816

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