Markets/Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?

Market Price

38%YES

62%NO

FM Estimate

33%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

4.3pp

Vol 24h$13K

Liquidity$127K

Bid / Ask37% / 38%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesJun 30, 2027

Macro fundamentals-4.3pp

low confidence · 1 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Combined YES = 117% — 17pp excess suggests collective overpricing.