Markets/Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$52

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

18% / 21%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

22% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

20% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $52 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687559