ForecastMind
Markets/San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
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San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Closes April 13, 2026

Polymarket Price

98%YES
2%NO

Volume 24h

$165K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

98% / 99%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $165K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1806242

Outcome Markets6 markets

This event has 6 active outcome markets. San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 98%, Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5): 92%, San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U : 53%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+20.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Apr 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

64%

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: +22.0pp

42% → 64%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

64% YES (+22.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 98%99%
Buy YES@ 98¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly14.9%
½ Kelly7.4%
Buy NO@ 2¢

-14.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 14.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this