Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Senators vs. Devils
Closed April 12, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced driven by RUS neutral ELI → +1.0pp avg (n=48) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$926K
Liquidity
$22K
Bid / Ask
68% / 69%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
48%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Senators vs. Devils" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $926K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Senators vs. Devils." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607474
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Senators vs. Devils: O/U 4.5: 100%, Senators vs. Devils: O/U 5.5: 80%, Senators vs. Devils: O/U 6.5: 71%.
Senators vs. Devils
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Apr 12, 2026
Biggest move: -32.0pp
48% → 16%
Apr 13, 2026
Current
16% YES (-32.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this