Markets/Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs Cosano

Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs Cosano

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:26 AM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

50%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 17, 2026

Current

51% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 50%99%

Buy YES@ 50¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 50¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs Cosano" at 50% YES / 50% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs Cosano." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1592578