Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)
Closes April 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
50%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-03). "Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1836928
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Carabelli vs. Assche: Match O/U 21.5: 79%, Carabelli vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5: 52%, Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.: 50%.
Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
75% YES
Apr 3, 2026
Trough probability
50% YES — lowest in period
Apr 3, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 3, 2026
Biggest move: -25.0pp
75% → 50%
Apr 3, 2026
Current
50% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 3, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this