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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

51% / 57%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

98%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786051

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+41.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

59% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

33% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

33%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +44.5pp

55% → 100%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

100% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this