ForecastMind
⊘

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: 76ers (-3.5)
Share on X

Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

Closed April 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

80%YES
20%NO

Volume 24h

$107K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

68% / 77%

Spread

9.00pp

Expert Signal

80%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: 76ers (-3.5)" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $107K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: 76ers (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1848813

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. Spread: 76ers (-2.5): 86%, Spread: 76ers (-3.5): 80%, Spread: 76ers (-4.5): 75%.

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
86%

Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

80%
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
75%
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
74%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
72%
1H Spread: 76ers (-0.5)
0%
1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
0%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-15.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

35%

Apr 4, 2026

Biggest move: -16.5pp

52% → 35%

Apr 4, 2026

Current

35% YES (-16.5pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 80%99%
Buy YES@ 80¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 20¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this