ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)
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Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES
72%NO

Volume 24h

$32K

Liquidity

$244K

Bid / Ask

28% / 29%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $32K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718892

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5): 28%, Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5): 12%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~60%.

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

28%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
12%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

28% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 28%99%
Buy YES@ 28¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢
Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%
½ Kelly0.9%
Buy NO—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this