ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)
Share on X

Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

81%YES
19%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$333

Bid / Ask

66% / 98%

Spread

31.80pp

Expert Signal

81%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)" at 81% YES / 19% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 31.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 81%, NO 19%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1782526

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Avalanche (-2.5): 81%, Spread: Avalanche (-1.5): 70%.

Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)

81%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
70%

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+50.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

90%

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: +47.5pp

43% → 90%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

93% YES (+3.1pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 81%99%
Buy YES@ 81¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 19¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this