Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)
Closed March 29, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
52% / 55%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
50%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
57% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
38%
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: -22.0pp
60% → 38%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
38% YES (-22.0pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Bulls (-2.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Spread: Bulls (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1753100
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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