Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Bulls (-4.5)
Closed March 29, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$98K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
44% / 47%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
44%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
52% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
32%
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: -21.5pp
54% → 32%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
32% YES (-21.5pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Bulls (-4.5)" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $98K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Spread: Bulls (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1761056
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.