ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)
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Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)

Closed March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES
64%NO

Volume 24h

$80K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

31% / 34%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $80K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1785183

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5): 100%, Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5): 63%, Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5): 53%.

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)
63%
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)
53%

Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)

36%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
0%

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Mar 31, 2026

Biggest move: -5.0pp

47% → 42%

Mar 31, 2026

Current

42% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 36%99%
Buy YES@ 36¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 64¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this