⊘

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Ducks (-1.5)

Share on X

Spread: Ducks (-1.5)

Data as of Mar 25, 2026, 03:38 AM UTC

Closed March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES

72%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

30% / 32%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-19.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: -19.5pp

42% → 22%

Mar 25, 2026

Current

22% YES (-19.5pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 28%99%

Buy YES@ 28¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 72¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Ducks (-1.5)" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Spread: Ducks (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1691816

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.