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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Germany (-2.5)

Share on X

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 09:03 PM UTC

Closed March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

31%YES

70%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

22% / 80%

Spread

58.00pp

Expert Signal

31%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+5.5pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 31%99%

Buy YES@ 31¢

Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 70¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Germany (-2.5)" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 58.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Spread: Germany (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1494641

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.