Markets/Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)

Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC

Closes March 21, 2026

Polymarket Price

49%YES

52%NO

Volume 24h

$465K

Liquidity

$359K

Bid / Ask

47% / 49%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

49%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)

Full event →

Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5.5)

54%

Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 146

53%

Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 147

50%

Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)

49%

Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 149

45%

Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

31%

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 21, 2026

Current

49% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 49%99%

Buy YES@ 49¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 52¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $465K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662402