Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)
Closed March 23, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$50K
Liquidity
$296K
Bid / Ask
55% / 63%
Spread
8.00pp
Expert Signal
46%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
49% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: +5.5pp
46% → 51%
Mar 24, 2026
Current
51% YES (+5.5pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-14.5)" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Spread: Hawks (-14.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1690629
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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