Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hawks (-15.5)
Closed March 28, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$123K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
47% / 49%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
46% YES
Mar 28, 2026
Trough probability
21% YES — lowest in period
Mar 29, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
57%
Mar 29, 2026
Biggest move: +36.5pp
21% → 57%
Mar 29, 2026
Current
57% YES (+36.5pp recent)
Mar 29, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-15.5)" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $123K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 28, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Spread: Hawks (-15.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1749868
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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Full price history for your own analysis.