Markets/Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 09:47 PM UTC

Closes March 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

51%YES

50%NO

Volume 24h

$47K

Liquidity

$99K

Bid / Ask

50% / 51%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

51%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

51% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 51%99%

Buy YES@ 51¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 50¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-2.5)" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $47K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 51%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Spread: Hawks (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1793942

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.