ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
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Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

Closes April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

53%YES
48%NO

Volume 24h

$51K

Liquidity

$369K

Bid / Ask

52% / 53%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

53%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-7.5)" at 53% YES / 47% NO. In the last 24 hours, $51K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Hawks (-7.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 53%, NO 47%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1933248

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Hawks (-6.5): 57%, Spread: Hawks (-7.5): 53%, 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 49%.

Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
57%

Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

53%
1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
49%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
48%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

53% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 53%99%
Buy YES@ 53¢
Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 48¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this