ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Heat (-9.5)
Share on X

Spread: Heat (-9.5)

Closed March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$1.4M

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Heat (-9.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.4M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Heat (-9.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1763571

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-48.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Biggest move: -23.0pp

28% → 5%

Mar 29, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this