Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)
Closed April 5, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$871K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
47% / 51%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hornets (-3.5)" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $871K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Spread: Hornets (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1881148
This event has 7 active outcome markets. Spread: Hornets (-2.5): 52%, Spread: Hornets (-5.5): 49%, Spread: Hornets (-3.5): 49%.
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
52% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Apr 6, 2026
Biggest move: -9.0pp
56% → 47%
Apr 6, 2026
Current
47% YES (-9.0pp recent)
Apr 6, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this