Markets/Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes March 21, 2026

Polymarket Price

52%YES

48%NO

Volume 24h

$20K

Liquidity

$131K

Bid / Ask

51% / 53%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Full event →

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)

52%

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 15

52%

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)

48%

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 15

45%

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

18%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Current

53% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 52%99%

Buy YES@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1659334