Markets/Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes March 21, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES

53%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$122K

Bid / Ask

47% / 48%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Full event →

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)

52%

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 15

52%

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)

48%

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 15

45%

VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

18%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Current

48% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 48%99%

Buy YES@ 48¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 53¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1662401