Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$51K

Liquidity$342K

ClosedApr 27, 2026

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets. Combined YES = 200% — 100pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Manchester United FC

Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27

100%

Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.

Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5

100%

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

—

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-59.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $51K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-28). "Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1977557