ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
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Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

Closes April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

54% / 56%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1934121

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Nuggets (-10.5): 55%, Spread: Nuggets (-11.5): 51%, Spread: Nuggets (-12.5): 47%.

Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

55%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)
51%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)
47%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 55%99%
Buy YES@ 55¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 45¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this