Markets/Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:37 PM UTC

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$103

Bid / Ask

3% / 13%

Spread

9.80pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-24.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -26.5pp

35% → 9%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

11% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%

½ Kelly3.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 9.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1711482

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