ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Raptors (-13.5)
Share on X

Spread: Raptors (-13.5)

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

46%YES
55%NO

Volume 24h

$179K

Liquidity

$84K

Bid / Ask

45% / 46%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

46%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-13.5)" at 46% YES / 54% NO. In the last 24 hours, $179K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 46%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Spread: Raptors (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 46%, NO 54%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813686

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Raptors (-13.5): 46%, Spread: Raptors (-14.5): 43%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~12%.

Spread: Raptors (-13.5)

46%
Spread: Raptors (-14.5)
43%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

45% YES (-4.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 46%99%
Buy YES@ 46¢
Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.5%
Buy NO@ 54¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this