ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Raptors (-14.5)
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Spread: Raptors (-14.5)

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES
57%NO

Volume 24h

$34K

Liquidity

$61K

Bid / Ask

42% / 43%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-14.5)" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Spread: Raptors (-14.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1813218

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Raptors (-13.5): 45%, Spread: Raptors (-14.5): 43%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~13%.

Spread: Raptors (-13.5)
45%

Spread: Raptors (-14.5)

43%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

45% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

42% YES (-3.0pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 43%99%
Buy YES@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this