ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Rockets (-16.5)
Share on X

Spread: Rockets (-16.5)

Closed April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

91%YES
10%NO

Volume 24h

$148K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

83% / 95%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

91%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Rockets (-16.5)" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $148K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-04). "Spread: Rockets (-16.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1841190

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Rockets (-9.5): 100%, 1H Spread: Rockets (-10.5): 100%, Spread: Rockets (-17.5): 94%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+23.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Apr 3, 2026

Biggest move: +27.5pp

53% → 81%

Apr 4, 2026

Current

81% YES (+27.5pp recent)

Apr 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 91%99%
Buy YES@ 91¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.3%
½ Kelly2.6%
Buy NO@ 9¢

-5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this