ForecastMind
Markets/Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)
Share on X

Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)

Closes April 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718893

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5): 7%, Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5): 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~90%.

Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)
7%

Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)

3%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.2%
½ Kelly1.6%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this