Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Suns (-2.5)
Closed April 11, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$182K
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
11% / 21%
Spread
10.00pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Suns (-2.5)" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $182K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Spread: Suns (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1936320
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Suns (-1.5): 25%, Spread: Suns (-2.5): 18%, 1H Spread: Suns (-1.5): 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~58%.
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 10, 2026
Biggest move: -19.5pp
49% → 29%
Apr 11, 2026
Current
29% YES (-19.5pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this