Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$234K

Bid / Ask100% / —

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The Villarreal CF (-2.5) spread market is at 100%, indicating a near-certain expectation of Villarreal winning by at least three goals. This high conviction price level, despite related markets for PSG showing similar strength in their own handicaps, suggests a significant divergence in anticipated performance for Villarreal in this specific fixture.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-04). "Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2020933