ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Warriors (-11.5)
Share on X

Spread: Warriors (-11.5)

Closed April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$121K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

39% / 42%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Warriors (-11.5)" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $121K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Spread: Warriors (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1933834

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Spread: Warriors (-10.5): 24%, Spread: Warriors (-11.5): 14%, 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5): 0%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~62%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-42.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Apr 10, 2026

Biggest move: -38.0pp

48% → 10%

Apr 11, 2026

Current

10% YES (-38.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this