Markets/Spread: Wild (-1.5)

Spread: Wild (-1.5)

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 07:38 PM UTC

Closes March 26, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES

64%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$243K

Bid / Ask

36% / 37%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Current

37% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 37%99%

Buy YES@ 37¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 64¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Wild (-1.5)" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Spread: Wild (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1717864

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